Since the establishment of the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) in the 1990s, there has been an increase in general awareness and the willingness of nations to take steps to combat climate change and environmental degradation. Over the past 30 years, the world has seen definite progress in terms of the measures undertaken to reduce the impact on climate change and global warming. In the coming decade, the Paris Agreement (2015) was to come into play, with a target of reducing global warming to less than 1.5 degrees celsius by 2030. The key question that arises here is that, has the pandemic affected this trajectory of preventing environmental degradation. This can be analyzed based on two scenarios.
Scenario 1:
Based on the evidence already available from across the globe, countries will begin to fall back on environmental standards and regulations in order to boost the recovery path post COVID. Fearing a slower growth trajectory, the environmental norms are the first to take a hit. The US has already announced the reduction in emission standards for new cars, increasing emissions by 1 billion metric tons of carbon-dioxide (source: Natural Resources Defense Council). At the same time, the US has also stopped the monitoring of environmental protection by companies for an indefinite period. China has temporarily suspended environmental standards for small businesses in order to accelerate growth. Brazil has reduced surveillance of the amazon rain forests. Along with these, there are postponements in major climate change conferences across the globe, including the 26th conference of parties.
While some of these changes are occurring during the pandemic, they are expected to continue long after that as well, in order to maintain a speedy recovery from the economic shock caused by the pandemic. This will result in the loss of years of progress in the field of curbing climate change. Additionally, it is highly unlikely that the Paris agreement will be adopted by countries across the world in 2020, as per the original plan. While a stimulated growth path at the cost of environmental degradation will lead to a speedy recovery, it will not be sustainable in the long run.
Scenario 2:
Although the above evidence point to a very bleak situation, there is still hope. Currently, during the pandemic, there is increased awareness regarding environmental issues and the need for a sustainable growth path moving forward. With the right leadership, the world could move towards environmental safeguards with an increased impetus. Environmental measures could be structurally incorporated into the new economic order post-COVID-19. “An important opportunity will be through the national COVID-19 Economic Stimulus Packages that Governments, Central Banks, the World Bank, and the IMF are implementing. Such stimulus packages could end up being as high as 10% of the global economy and large enough to ensure the transition to a low carbon economy.” (Forbes)
Between the two scenarios, one leads to an unstable growth path but faster recovery, whereas the other leads to the building of a more sustainable global economy. The path ahead will not only depend on the leadership of independent nations and bodies such as the United Nations but also on individual citizens in terms of what we represent to the government as our priorities and needs.
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